09 February 2026 – The era of population growth is ending—and societies are unprepared, argues Ugo Bardi in a new book published today.
In The End of Population Growth, a report to the Club of Rome, the renowned author and systems scientist Ugo Bardi argues that population decline is likely to begin earlier than widely assumed—potentially within the next few decades – and that societies must adapt now in order to be prepared for the new trend.
“For thousands of years, population growth has been treated as both inevitable and desirable,” says Bardi, former professor of chemistry at the University of Florence and member of the Club of Rome. “But the data now tell a very different story. We are facing a population ‘U-turn’, and the social, economic, and political consequences are far larger than most governments are prepared for.”
Drawing on decades of research in systems dynamics, demography, history and environmental science, the book challenges both traditional Malthusian fears of overpopulation and optimistic assumptions that technological progress alone can sustain perpetual growth. With the clarity and wit characteristic of Bardi’s popular blog The Seneca Effect, the author presents population change as part of a long-term global cycle shaped by resources, pollution, social stress and economic structures.
Combining demographic data with historical and systems-based analysis, the book shows how fertility rates are falling across nearly all regions of the world. While global population may continue to rise for a short time, the underlying trend points towards stabilisation and decline well before the end of the century. Bardi argues that we are likely to see a decline even in current growth areas such as sub-Saharan Africa.
While a declining population could ease pressure on ecosystems and climate, The End of Population Growth warns that unmanaged population decline could strain public services, intensify inequality and destabilise political systems—particularly if governments continue to rely on short-term, growth-dependent solutions. At the same time, the book rejects alarmist narratives, arguing that population decline is neither inherently catastrophic nor something that can be reversed through simple policy fixes.
“Population decline is not necessarily a catastrophe,” Bardi explains. “But failing to adapt to it could be. The real danger lies in denial and in clinging to economic models that no longer match reality.”
Drawing on the legacy of The Limits to Growth, the book invites readers to question one of the deepest assumptions of modern society: that growth—whether demographic or economic—can be relied upon indefinitely. In doing so, it explores how societies might adapt through policy, technology and cultural change to a world where fewer people, rather than more, is the defining challenge.
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