Published 2026 – The era of population growth is ending – and societies are unprepared, argues Ugo Bardi in this report to the Club of Rome.
In The End of Population Growth, systems scientist and author Ugo Bardi argues that population decline is likely to begin earlier than widely assumed, potentially within the next few decades. While global population numbers may continue to rise briefly, falling fertility rates across nearly all regions point toward stabilisation and eventual decline well before the end of the century. What will be the impact of population decline?
The book shows that demographic change is already reshaping societies, and that economic, social and political systems built around perpetual growth are poorly equipped for this transition.
The End of Population Growth: key messages
Drawing on research in systems dynamics, demography, history and environmental science, Bardi challenges both traditional fears of overpopulation and optimistic assumptions that technological progress alone can sustain endless growth.
The book sets out how:
- Global population growth is ending sooner than expected, with decline already underway in many countries
- Falling birth rates are the primary driver of this shift, reflecting deep social and economic change
- Demographic change is uneven and non-linear, meaning decline can occur faster than growth
- Population growth in lower-income countries is already slowing and forms part of a wider global transition
- The greatest risk societies face lies in institutional unpreparedness, as welfare systems, labour markets and economies remain dependent on outdated assumptions of growth.
Understanding the impact of population decline
While a declining population could reduce pressure on ecosystems and the climate, The End of Population Growth warns that unmanaged depopulation could strain public services, intensify inequality and destabilise political systems. However, the book rejects alarmist narratives, arguing that population decline is neither inherently catastrophic nor easily reversed through simple policy fixes. The book emphasises the need for long-term planning and institutional adaptation rather than short-term, growth-dependent responses.
Adapting to the end of population growth
Building on the intellectual legacy of The Limits to Growth, the book invites readers to question one of the deepest assumptions of modern society: that growth — demographic or economic — can be relied upon indefinitely.
The End of Population Growth argues that the central challenge ahead is adaptation: redesigning institutions so societies can remain stable, equitable and resilient in a world where fewer people, rather than more, may increasingly be the defining condition.
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