Published 2023 – In this working paper for the Global Challenges Foundation, members of the Earth4All modelling team show that the global population could peak just below 9 billion in 2050 and then start falling. The new projection is significantly lower than several prominent population estimates, including those of the United Nations.
The team used the system dynamics model of Earth4All to explore two scenarios this century. In the first scenario – Too Little Too Late – the world continues to develop economically in a similar way to the last 50 years. In this scenario, the researchers estimate that the global population could peak at 8.6 in 2050 before declining to 7 billion in 2100. In the second scenario, the Giant Leap, researchers estimate that the population would peak at 8.5 billion people by around 2040 and decline to around 6 billion by the end of the century. This is achieved through unprecedented investment in poverty alleviation – particularly investment in education and health – along with extraordinary policy turnarounds on food and energy security, inequality and gender equity.
According to the team’s demographic projections, the entire population could achieve living conditions exceeding the United Nations minimum level without significant changes in current developmental trends. However, this would require a much more equal distribution of resources.
Authors: Beniamino Callegari and Per Espen Stoknes
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