
Copenhagen and beyond
Recommendations by the General Assembly of the Club of Rome
The Club of Rome convened in Amsterdam 23.-24. October 2009, to formulate concrete proposals to present to heads of state at the UN Climate Change Summit in Copenhagen. The outcome of this Assembly was the 'Amsterdam Declaration', a condensed three page document outlining the Club of Rome's recommendations to advance international agreement on a post-Kyoto Treaty on climate change.
Scientists now understand much better the fundamental systems dynamics of the processes which drive climate change. Even if international agreement in Copenhagen and follow-up action can ensure that concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are contained at 450 ppm, this does not guarantee that the rise in global average temperature will be limited to 2°C. In fact it offers only a 50% chance, which is not normally considered a secure basis for policy.
Further, a rise in average global temperature of 2°C implies, in many regions of the world, a rise of 4°C, for example in the Alpine regions of Switzerland and at the Greenland ice sheet with major potential consequences for sea level rise.
The Copenhagen Climate Summit will bring together the necessary political power to lay the foundations for an agreement; however, a political solution is not enough to make real progress on climate change.
The causes and consequences of climate change will not be managed by treating it as a "stand-alone" issue. It must be positioned in a wider context which integrates issues of environment and resources, economy and finance and demographics and development. Also, incremental, sectoral measures will not be effective. Explicit, integrated strategies must be developed to achieve radical restructuring and reorientation of national economies onto a sustainable and inclusive path.
An explicit coherent strategy is needed to respond to the array of interconnected threats to the future of humanity, of which climate change is one. It will provide a clear framework in which the actions of nations, cities, corporations, communities and individuals can become mutually consistent and reinforcing. It can provide a sense of vision and purpose to motivate efforts and to accept change.
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