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Stabilising Climate Change Emissions
The world is facing the risk that rising levels of emissions of greenhouse gases will warm the atmosphere to a point at which an irreversible process of global warming will threaten the existence of the world as we know it.
Respected scientists are now warning that, if emissions rise beyond a certain level - a tipping point - this will trigger a process of catastrophic climate change. This implies that early action is required to contain the rise in emissions by moving rapidly towards a "low-carbon economy." However, the social and economic implications of such rapid and deep change raise intense political and economic issues.
The impacts of human activities on the planet have led some analysts to speak of the Anthropocene age, where the evolution of the planet is significantly influenced by human activities. Thus for the first time in history, the impacts of humanity on a global scale risk the destabilisation and destruction of the sensitive environmental and ecological systems on which we depend.
Current levels of emissions in the atmosphere are around 385 parts per million, (ppm), including Carbon Dioxide and other emissions. And this level is rising fast. The present consensus at the level of international policy is broadly aimed at containing the long term increase in this level of emissions to 450 ppm.
It is anticipated that, if emissions can be held to this level, then the rise in global temperature will hopefully remain below 2° C. But, as was suggested by the Stern Review, (2007), which undertook the first thorough assessment of the economic implications of climate change, this strategy is unlikely to be feasible. It considered that a pathway between 450 and 550 ppm would be feasible, recognising economic and political realities.
But new evidence shows that climate change is accelerating for identifiable reasons. A growing number of scientists, experts and officials are therefore concluding that even a level of 450ppm would be too high to guarantee that catastrophic climate change would be avoided. An increasingly strong call is being made that the target level should be 350 ppm.
The outcome of this debate as to what level of emissions must be attained to reduce the risk of catastrophic climate change to an acceptable level and how far this can be made economically, socially and politically feasible will determine the future of humanity and of the fragile biological systems of the planet.
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Photos: http://www.bigfoto.com
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