Polar Bear Photograph courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey

Following the shocking news of a Russian research team that discovered  ‘fountains’ of methane bubbling to surface in the Arctic sea ^[1],  Ian Dunlop* warns that emissions from methane release in the Arctic are now accelerating rapidly. As the Independent ^[1] states, methane is a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

Papers presented at the American Geophysical Union’s annual conference in San Francisco in early-December have highlighted the extreme risk that humanity is now exposed to by not rapidly reducing carbon emissions.  The Arctic region over the last few decades has been warming 2-3 times faster than the global average, one consequence being that the volume of Arctic sea ice is reducing dramatically, by around 80% in summer since 1979.  

The big risk is that such warming will melt the Arctic permafrost, which contains twice as much carbon as the atmosphere, releasing that carbon and thus accelerating global warming past tipping points which create a climate far less conducive to human evolution.  In particular the permafrost contains large quantities of methane, with a warming potential more than twenty times greater than carbon dioxide.

CO₂ and methane release in the Arctic has been observed for some time, but the latest papers suggest those emissions are now accelerating rapidly.  It is too early to understand the full implications and release mechanism, but in risk management terms, these observations highlight, as never before, the need for emergency action to reduce human carbon emissions.  If the permafrost melt is allowed to accelerate, we have little means to prevent it.  Over time, this would be catastrophic, probably leading to global mean temperature increasing well over 4^oC compared to pre-industrial levels, with a global carrying capacity of 1 billion people rather than the current 7 billion.

Emergency action is needed now.  It highlights the utter inadequacy and empty rhetoric of the so-called “Durban Platform for Enhanced Action”.  Waiting to negotiate an agreement by 2015, for implementation from 2020, meaning it will have little effect for years afterwards, when human emissions are at an all-time high, accelerating faster than ever, the permafrost melt is accelerating and none of the supposed technological fixes for human emissions, such as carbon capture and storage, are working, is suicidal. 

It is clear that conventional politics is incapable of handling this issue, that leadership is totally lacking within the political and corporate worlds and that global and national institutions have failed here, as they have failed to address the financial crisis.  The first priority for 2012 must be to develop new mechanisms which, with community support, go around conventional politics and vested interests. This is now a far bigger risk than any financial crisis and yet the real effort devoted to managing it is miniscule in comparison.

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Ian T. Dunlop is a Member of the Club of Rome, Former CEO of the Australian Institute of Company Directors and Deputy Convenor of the Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil